Scoring in the NBA is up this season, with seven players averaging 30 points or more at the All-Star break, compared to just two players achieving that feat last year. The Minnesota Timberwolves, who had the highest-scoring team average last season with 115.9 points per game, now rank 10th this season, behind the league-leading Sacramento Kings, who average close to 120 points per game.
Given this scoring boom, it is not surprising that the over has been the more likely outcome across the league with a 51.02% hit rate to date. SI Betting has reviewed the five teams whose games go over and under at the highest rate in the NBA to help inform your bets in the second half of the season.
The Golden State Warriors lead the league in pace and three-pointers made per game with 16.6. Their No. 12 offensive rating is not as good as expected, but they still rank second in scoring with 118.6 points per game. The Warriors' defense is not what it once was, allowing the fourth-most points per game in the league at 118.5. The over has a hit rate of 21-6-1 in their away games, which is the highest in the league, but only 13-15-1 in their home games.
The Philadelphia 76ers' scoring average of 114.4 is about league average, but they have the third-best defense by points allowed with 110.5, and they run at the fifth-slowest pace in the league. The over hits more often than not for Philadelphia, and this is the case both at home and on the road.
The Oklahoma City Thunder operate at the third-fastest pace, score the third-most points per game with 117.9, and allow the 11th-most points per game at 116.2, all of which contribute to their near-60% over hit rate.
The San Antonio Spurs rank 24th in scoring with 112.4 points per game, but their defense allows the highest average to opponents in the league, nearly three points per game higher than any other team, at 122.6 points per game. It helps that San Antonio's offense isn't necessarily efficient, but they get up and down the court at the seventh-fastest pace.
The Toronto Raptors, who rank 25th in pace, 19th in scoring with 113.3 points per game, and 11th in points allowed with 112.5, are somewhat surprising to see near the top of this list. Still, Toronto games have seen more points scored this season than oddsmakers have expected, regardless of the venue.
The Chicago Bulls hit the fewest three-pointers per game in the league with just 10.3. They are about league average in other relevant categories, ranking 20th in scoring average with 113.1 points per game, 15th in points allowed with 113.4, and 13th in pace. The under has a hit rate of 25-34 for the Bulls this season.
The Los Angeles Clippers are a curious case, as they rank 12th in scoring with 116.8 points per game and 21st in points allowed with 113.8 points per game, but the under hits more often than not for them. The under has a hit rate of 27-34 for the Clippers this season.
In conclusion, with the league-wide scoring boom, the over has been hitting more frequently. However, the five teams mentioned above have shown a tendency to go over or under their expected total in their games this season. These trends can be used to inform your bets in the second half of the NBA season.